Nationalism is a shared sense of group identity and desire for political self-determination. It is generally described as having two forms: civic nationalism and ethnic nationalism. In the former, group membership is open to individuals who share in the principals and values of the nation. In ethnic nationalism, group membership is limited only to individuals who share the same ethnic, religious, linguistic, or similar cultural category. The following report shall focus on this latter form of nationalism as it has become more prevalent in the 21st C. and its exclusionary politics can result in humanitarian crises.

Key Insights

• By 2030, nationalist parties and policies will be part of mainstream politics.

• By 2030, nationalism will challenge the international order.