COVID-19 is continuing to spread around the world. Most countries that are experiencing an outbreak have seen their health systems stressed beyond capacity by the rapid increase in needs and have imposed unprecedented policies to slow community transmission, some extending as far as a “lockdown” dramatically limiting freedom of movement. In some hotspots, established and well-funded health systems have been unable to manage the spike in caseloads, resulting in the deployment of surge capacity. As COVID-19 continues to spread around the globe, it poses a significant challenge, particularly in areas with less well-developed health and social protection systems, in areas affected by active conflicts, and for displaced populations. In addition, women and girls, who make up the majority of healthcare workers and carers, are disproportionately affected because they are directly exposed to the virus and indirectly at high risk of gender-based violence.

These scenarios for 2022 have been researched and developed with our partners at Futuribles. IARAN, Fordham University and Oxfam international have collaboratively adapted them to make them more global in focus. Following a preliminary publication on Apr 11, the scenarios have been strengthened as new information becomes available and updated on Jun 4, 2020. It is expected that all three scenarios will be occurring simultaneously in different countries/regions of the world.