Beneath the visible crises reshaping the aid sector lie deeper layers of meaning, metaphor and myth. Applying Sohail Inayatullah's Causal Layered Analysis to humanitarian futures, this report surfaces the unspoken assumptions of the giver–receiver paradigm — and shows why real transformation requires shifting from charity to solidarity, from intervention to partnership.

The ongoing Ukraine war could disrupt global supply chains and create energy insecurity, impacting countries like Italy. The conflict has caused an influx of migrants into Europe and disrupted global supply chains, leading to a rise in commodity prices and an energy crisis. Italy is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on energy imports from Russia, record inflation, and dependence on wheat imports. By examining potential scenarios, this analysis helps humanitarian actors respond to the needs of affected populations in Italy and the surrounding region.

Drawing on extensive research, the book demonstrates in practical terms how embedding futures-focused thinking into practice can help humanitarian actors to enhance their impact and fit for the future. The book provides readers with a step-by-step guide to an innovative combination of tools and methods tested and refined over the course of several years. However, it also goes beyond this, by grounding the approach within the broader ambition of making humanitarian action more effective. Overall, the analytical and strategic processes outlined in this book will accompany a decision maker through every stage of creating a robust, agile and impactful long-term strategy.

Though there is variability across the world, for the coming 18-24 months we believe that the humanitarian community will predominantly be operating in an environment where there is a lack of global governance and where there is an intensifying ecosystemic crisis in the form of a global pandemic plus the economic and social disruption it causes. This will result in an overwhelming level of humanitarian needs and insufficient resources: these three preliminary scenarios will be occurring simultaneously in different countries/regions of the world.

In the Future of Financial Assistance report we take a look at the scale up of cash assistance is catalysing rapid change in the humanitarian sector – the emergence of new operational models, changing use of technology and partnerships with private sector actors, and stronger links between humanitarian assistance and other types of financial flows.