Preparing for the Unknown: A Scenario Analysis of the Ukraine War's Effects

The ongoing war in Ukraine and its effects on Europe have the potential to significantly disrupt global supply chains and create energy insecurity, with significant implications for countries like Italy. In this scenario analysis, we will explore two main drivers that could shape the future of the conflict and its impacts on Europe: the evolution of the war in Ukraine and the severity of supply chain disruption and energy insecurity.

The war in Ukraine has resulted in a significant influx of migrants into Europe, driving a crisis in primary reception countries. Beyond the flow of people, the impacts of the war are being felt worldwide in the disruption to global supply chains. The significant rise in commodity prices is causing food and fuel crises across the globe, particularly for countries with greater dependency on imports. Europe is at risk of an energy crisis as its dependence on Russian gas and oil has left it exceedingly vulnerable.

Italy is one of the more exposed countries in Europe. Historically, Italy has been a popular destination country for migrants from Ukraine. While a relatively small number of refugees from Ukraine have arrived in Italy this year, these numbers could increase if the war continues or if refugees currently based in other EU countries move to reunite with family or friends. Italy is also facing record inflation and a worsening cost-of-living crisis, which is being compounded by the country's reliance on wheat imports to make basic foodstuffs that form the base of the Italian diet.

Italy's vulnerabilities are exacerbated by its heavy reliance on energy imports from Russia. In 2020, Italy imported 28.5m cubic meters of natural gas from Russia, 41.9% of its total consumption in the same year. This makes the country extremely vulnerable to disruptions in energy supply. The challenges posed by the consequences of the Ukraine war in the Italian context are further exacerbated by structural inequalities, an unbalanced welfare system, and energy dependency.

Understanding the potential outcomes of the Ukraine war and their corresponding impacts on Italy is critical for humanitarian actors operating in the country and the Mediterranean region. By examining a range of potential scenarios and their corresponding impacts on Italy, we aim to provide humanitarian actors with a comprehensive overview of the risks and opportunities that may arise. By anticipating the potential risks and opportunities presented by different scenarios, humanitarian actors can better position themselves to respond to the needs of affected populations and communities in Italy and the surrounding region.

This scenario analysis is an essential resource for humanitarian actors seeking to understand the potential impacts of the Ukraine war on Italy and to develop effective strategies for responding to the challenges and opportunities that may arise.