What do we need to know about the COVID-19 crisis?

Over 6 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported by the beginning of June and the virus is continuing to spread around the world. Most countries that are experiencing an outbreak have seen their health systems stressed beyond capacity by the rapid increase in needs and have imposed unprecedented policies to slow community transmission, some extending as far as a “lockdown” dramatically limiting freedom of movement. In some hotspots, established and well-funded health systems have been unable to manage the spike in caseloads, resulting in the deployment of surge capacity. As COVID-19 continues to spread around the globe, it poses a significant challenge, particularly in areas with less well-developed health and social protection systems, in areas affected by active conflicts, and for displaced populations. In addition, women and girls, who make up the majority of healthcare workers and carers, are disproportionately affected because they are directly exposed to the virus and indirectly at high risk of gender-based violence.

The global response to this emergency is likely to take up a significant amount of aid resources (reducing the funds available for other priorities) and requires humanitarian actors to quickly adapt to social distancing and movement disruptions. Humanitarian actors must consider the wider implications of the pandemic at the same time as they respond to the urgent needs of affected populations, particularly the poorest and those that are most likely to be severely affected by COVID-19 (such as the elderly, people with pre-existing medical conditions and those without access to healthcare including refugees and migrants). The economic costs of containment are likely to be severe. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has suggested that the pandemic will affect four out of every five jobs and cause a global recession. Disruptions to agricultural processes and international trade will exacerbate global food insecurity in the short to medium term. Inequality will increase as those who are most privileged isolate themselves, secure better treatment and insulate themselves from the worst of the socio-economic consequences. The humanitarian needs associated with the pandemic and the policy responses to it are mounting and the funding for the response has been woefully inadequate. These threats require planning and early action.

Though there is variability across the world, for the coming 18-24 months we believe that the humanitarian community will predominantly be operating in an environment where there is a lack of global governance and where there is an intensifying ecosystemic crisis in the form of a global pandemic plus the economic and social disruption it causes. This will result in an overwhelming level of humanitarian needs and insufficient resources.

The implications for the formal humanitarian sector in this context are as follows:

• Humanitarian actors will have increasing difficulty accessing vulnerable communities as the humanitarian space is under significant restrictions from national authorities.

• Limited experience in managing transnational/complex responses and in adopting equitable and effective remote partnering practices reduces the relevance of humanitarian actors capacity and expertise in localised crises in the face of a deepening ecosystemic crises which requires both local early action and collaborative longer-term strategies.

• Funding for humanitarian action is not keeping pace with the scale of need, leading to situations of high and prolonged distress.

• National and regional actors are superseding INGOs that are struggling to adapt quickly enough to maintain their relevance.

• Many states are not prioritising global development assistance and an increasing number of private donors are focusing on domestic issues. International funding is primarily funnelled through bilateral aid between governments.

This operating environment will be assumed to be true for all the following scenarios, however, there is potential for the pandemic response to drive change. The need for flexibility,  equitable partnering approaches that complement local capacities, the increased dependence on technology and the integration of new actors into the humanitarian space could catalyse a paradigm shift.

The global response to the pandemic is rapidly changing and there is a high degree of uncertainty. As a result, these preliminary scenarios are focused on exploring the factors we think are most influential in driving social/political and economic changes rather than reflecting the current situation in any particular region. 

The global response to the pandemic is rapidly changing and there is a high degree of uncertainty. As a result, these preliminary scenarios are focused on exploring the factors we think are most influential in driving social/political and economic changes rather than reflecting the current situation in any particular region. 

Key assumptions about COVID-19 based on the best available evidence:

1. Those with no underlying health conditions who have contracted the virus will develop medium-term immunity (expectation approximately 2 years).

2. It is understood that seasonality is likely to affect COVID-19 (and therefore will peak in the northern and southern hemispheres during the colder seasons) however, as a new virus, the pandemic will follow more erratic patterns at the outset, likely behaving unpredictably until the middle of 2021.

3. There will be a global economic turndown.

COVID-19 scenarios 2021-22 | June 4th update

These preliminary scenarios have been researched and developed by our partners at Futuribles. IARAN has adapted them to make them more global in focus. These will continue to be updated and amended as new information becomes available. It is expected that all three scenarios will be occurring simultaneously in different countries/regions of the world:

Next steps: A-B-C-D investments for effectiveness in every scenario

The highly changeable environment which has been created by the COVID-19 pandemic and the response to it means that we need to consider all the different scenarios to best manage such uncertainty. Considering only one potential evolution of this crisis will limit the effectiveness of humanitarian stakeholders across the spectrum of different operating environments in which they are working.

This crisis presents challenges that should not be underestimated, but for the humanitarian community it also provides space to try new things to increase effectiveness and act on some of the transformative commitments that have been made. The next steps outlined below are designed to be integrated into response plans and contribute towards ensuring that the humanitarian community is seizing every opportunity for transformation. 

These next steps provide humanitarian actors the opportunity to use the COVID-19 response as a vehicle for transformation, creating a more inclusive and effective aid system.