What kind of aid system do we need by 2040, and how do we build it starting now?
International aid is increasingly contested, under-funded, and instrumentalized. Yet solidarity, innovation, and local leadership are evident on the ground everyday. The #FutureofAid initiative brings together global voices to co-create an outlook for the aid system by 2040 and help organizations serve communities effectively an uncertain future.
Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation is an evidence-based, decision-ready set of futures for aid, shaped by people affected by crises and aid practitioners: 50+ consultations | 877 contributors | 77% from Africa, MENA, Asia, and LAC | 44% local NGOs/CBOs | ~40% responding with lived experience of crisis.
This second report in the Future of Aid 2040 series offers four contrasting scenarios and a typology of crises, equipping donors, governments, civil society, and businesses to stress-test strategies, define priorities, act early where communities need it most and lay the foundation for concrete pathways of organisational transformation under local actors’ leadership.
The aid sector stands at a crossroads, facing a period of unprecedented disruption. Dramatic cuts to overseas development aid and humanitarian assistance in 2024–25 have sent shockwaves across the sector, triggering widespread program closures and staff layoffs. It's clear the aid system is in crisis, but this crisis has ignited crucial discussions about what aid means, how it functions, and where it must go next.
Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation is the next step in a two-year project led by IARAN and CHL, informed by consultations with nearly 900 contributors worldwide to anticipate and prepare for tomorrow’s challenges. Blending Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and La Prospective, the report maps how the aid system is organised today and how it could evolve by 2040 amid a shifting global landscape. An earlier brief — Future of Aid 2040: Unpacking the Aid System — set the base. This outlook advances the work with four scenarios and a crisis typology, outlining the needs aid actors may face and the capabilities required to respond.
Foreword, Puji Pujiono
Puji Pujiono frames Future of Aid 2040 as a milestone in civil society across Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific co-leading the re-imagining of the aid system, moving from observation to co-creation in the spirit of gotong royong.* He invites viewers to anchor transformation in locally led leadership and shared responsibility, and to use this Outlook as a starting point for collective action.
*Gotong royong: Indonesian ethos of communal mutual aid and collective responsibility.
“...For too long, the aid system has been built on shifting ground by outsiders, leaving those who must live within its walls out of the process. ...it is the first time that civil society from the Global South has been involved in reimagining the very foundations of ‘aid’—not just to observe the changes, but to contribute to the gotong royong* spirit.”
2040 Aid Scenarios
We analyse 25 global and aid system drivers—from geopolitical realignment and climate disruption to funding dynamics, localisation, digital governance, and public sentiment. Heavy trends (accelerating climate impacts, a bloc-based world, information warfare, and regionalisation of aid) intersect with key uncertainties to shape four distinct futures.
Typology of crises
A crisis typically refers to a situation that is particularly dangerous or difficult. It is a term referenced often in aid as the primary thing to which aid actors must respond, prepare for (where possible) and avert. There are numerous ways in which a crisis can be broken down, however, what was clear from the participants in the 2040 Future of Aid study is that there are three intersecting dimensions that create a crisis:
Destabilisers: broad, often transboundary forces such as climate change and extreme weather events, conflict or economic shocks and pandemics, which trigger a crisis.
Community resilience: determined by access to resources and levels of structural vulnerabilities (e.g., poverty, exclusion). This dimension plays a central role in defining how well populations can absorb shocks and recover. Specifically, the capacity for immediate response and the agency of affected populations shapes how a destabilising event is experienced.
Aid system configuration: encompassing the full spectrum of aid actors, funding flows, and delivery mechanisms. The coherence, timeliness, and effectiveness of preparedness, anticipatory action and response fundamentally influence crisis outcomes.
A crisis is not created by any one dimension alone but by the interaction of all three where vulnerability, disruption and discord are amplified. Some crises are slow onset, some sudden, and unfortunately, many become protracted. The purpose of considering crises in this triadic way is to move toward a more dynamic and contextual understanding of contemporary and future crises and to redefine the role of aid in navigating disruption and building greater resilience
Conclusion
The Future of Aid 2040 highlights escalating challenges—from conflict and climate shocks to deepening poverty—that cannot be met without addressing root causes and embracing the leadership of local actors. True transformation requires collective action, where organisations complement and reinforce communities rather than compete. As resources contract, choices must build toward a more equitable and legitimate aid system, not preserving institutions. Even in shrinking spaces, aid actors can chart pathways of transformation to stay effective for those who need it most. Future of Aid 2040 is a vital guide for that journey.
A CLA of the aid system in 2025
Unpacking the Aid System: laying the groundwork for transformation - the first report in the #FutureofAid 2040 series was designed to spark deeper conversations and inspire real transformation. Through the lens of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), this report reveals hidden systemic drivers, prevailing worldviews, and deeply held narratives sustaining the current status quo, offering an essential diagnosis to shape a new Future of Aid.
“The system is working in the way that it was intended when it was set up in its modern incarnation. It keeps power in the hands of a few and while it addresses the results of vulnerability, it does not invest adequate resources or political capital to address the causes that create it.”
To read the initial report - click the button below!
Future of Aid 2040 - Summary of the process
In 2017, IARAN’s Future of Aid: INGO in 2030 was a successful and widely adopted report for the strategic planning of aid actors. Yet, the shifting tides of the global landscape demand fresh insights that capture the seismic changes ahead. In response to this call, our team is joining efforts with Centre for Humanitarian Leadership (CHL) to revisit and expand the aid outlook for 2040, emphasising the need for actionable leadership and strategic planning pathways to transformation.
The Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation aims to explore and identify narrative scenarios reflecting the future developments that could impact the aid ecosystem by 2040. Through a highly participatory and consultive process, it also seeks to create a compelling vision of how the aid system can thrive amid future crises, emphasising inclusivity and the voice of local leadership. Our ultimate goal goes beyond foresight analysis: we aim to deliver transformative pathways for aid organizations, offering leadership and change strategies that empower them to evolve into resilient, future-ready entities capable of thriving in an ever-changing world.
Future of Aid 2040 project calendar
Who is involved?
Aside from IARAN and CHL who will take the role of Executive Committee that will lead and implement the study, this project is backed by a dedicated Steering Committee and an Academic Panel, comprising aid thought leaders and academic experts from across the world:
The Steering Committee is a core advisory group that includes the Asociación Salto Ángel, Croix Rouge Française, Fondation de France, Futuribles International, International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC), NORCAP, Organisation for Sustainable Development Africa (OSDA), Pastoral Social Colombiana – Caritas, Pujiono Centre, Rädda Barnen, Rural Movement Organisation (RMO), Save the Children Italia, Start Network, The Hague Humanitarian Studies Centre, United Edge, and Welthungerhilfe (WHH).
The Academic Panel is a dynamic collective of foresight innovators and aid research leaders. Each member contributes a distinct lens, blending diverse foresight methodologies with real-world aid insights to challenge conventional thinking and inspire transformative strategies. Members of the Academic Panel have also supported the design of the projects ethical policy. The Future of Aid 2040 initiative is guided by principles of transparency and accountability, ensuring all collaborations align with the highest ethical standards. For more information, please see our Ethical Compliance Policy. Academic Panel is comprised of: Alice Obrecht , Jennifer Doherty, Karla Paniagua, Alimi Salifou, Shiela R. Castillo, Guillermo Gándara, Francois Bourse, Mahmoud Ramadan, Sohail Inayatullah, Oscar Enrique Hernández, Nazanin Zadeh-Cummings, Ajoy Datta, and Philippe Ryfman.
Phase 1 - consultations so far
From November 2024 - April 2025, the Future of Aid 2040 project conducted over 50 webinars and surveys aimed at building a collective understanding of the narratives shaping aid and where it is going. Over 800 people participated in the project.
The community was brought together during sessions that explored the key drivers of change in both the global environment and the aid system, as well as the types of crises the sector should be preparing for. This extensive consultation process culminated in a CLA and the co-designing of four future scenarios. Summary presentations used in each webinar are available below, with the full outputs consolidated in the Unpacking the Aid System: laying the groundwork for transformation and the Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation reports.
1. Futures Thinking: Exploring the aid landscape over the next 15 years, including key drivers and worldviews.
Watch recording here (Streaming only available in English)
Download presentation here (English, French, Spanish)
2. Types of Crises: Analyzing potential vulnerabilities and preparedness strategies for future crises.
Watch recording here (Streaming only available in English)
Download presentation here (English, French, Spanish)
3. Scenarios for 2040: Developing possible futures and strategic responses for a resilient aid sector.
Watch recording here (Streaming only available in English)
Download presentation here (English, French, Spanish)
How can I get involved in Phase 2 - what’s next?
We invite all community-based, local leaders and aid actors to bring your voices! Between October and December 2025 we will be opening consultations for Phase 2 of the Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation where we work together to explore what these possible futures mean for us and how we can build a collective vision of effective aid. You can participate through a series of surveys or structured online seminars we will be hosting to identify - watch this space and follow along to find out more!
If you are a network/movement/organization and you are interested in joining the Future of Aid 2040 project - or you just require any information regarding the project - please reach out to us at futureofaid@iaran.org.
Thank you for joining us in crafting a resilient future for all.