The ongoing Ukraine war and its effects on Europe could cause significant disruption to global supply chains and energy insecurity, impacting countries such as Italy. Two key drivers that could shape the future of the conflict and its impacts on Europe are explored in this scenario analysis: the evolution of the war in Ukraine and the severity of supply chain disruption and energy insecurity. The conflict has caused an influx of migrants into Europe and disrupted global supply chains, leading to a rise in commodity prices that could cause food and fuel crises worldwide. Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil leaves it vulnerable to an energy crisis. Italy is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on energy imports from Russia, record inflation, and a dependence on wheat imports to make basic foodstuffs. Structural inequalities and an unbalanced welfare system exacerbate these challenges. By examining potential scenarios, this analysis provides humanitarian actors with a comprehensive overview of the risks and opportunities that may arise and helps them develop effective strategies for responding to the needs of affected populations and communities in Italy and the surrounding region.