In 2016 we released a landmark study titled Future of Aid: INGOs in 2030. While much of the analysis in this report remains relevant, we feel it is time to begin the process of updating the study to reflect the changes in our global humanitarian system and imagine the future of aid with the new horizon of 2040. We have received multiple requests from across different organizations to develop an updated analysis focused on transformative pathways in a changing environment and the Interagency Research and Analysis Network (IARAN) and Center for Humanitarian Leadership (CHL) are happy to announce the launch of the Future to Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation study to do just that!

What do we want to achieve?

The primary objective of the Future of Aid 2040 study is to provide all actors navigating the humanitarian ecosystem with a 2040 outlook to support their strategic decision-making and pursuit of transformation through the use of exploratory foresight scenarios. However, we want to take our analysis one step further. To build on the foresight study, we will design and publish a toolkit for organizational transformation, enabling humanitarian actors to lead themselves on a transformational journey to increase impact through collaboration to reach their desired futures. While the path of transformation may look different for each actor, affecting real and lasting change in the humanitarian system is a collaborative effort to which we all can and must contribute. The Future of Aid 2040 aims to be a vehicle through which such change can be co-designed.

Background:

The Future of Aid: INGOs in 2030, released in 2016, was a widely read, and most importantly, widely used report. This study became a reference for humanitarian actors throughout the system and has been used to support the strategic planning of over a dozen organizations. The Future of Aid: INGOs in 2030 report demonstrated the value of exploring and analyzing the trends and uncertainties facing the humanitarian ecosystem and, as the excerpt below shows, described a future which reflects many of the dynamics defining the global landscape today.

Future of Aid 2030 – Overflow Scenario

“The scenario where the humanitarian ecosystem has the least capacity to respond to humanitarian need resulting from the different types of crises is Overflow. The inability of the humanitarian ecosystem to make measurable progress in reducing human vulnerability, due to a retraction in global governance and limited leadership, is compounded by the escalating level of need in the Overflow scenario. In the face of increasingly likely crises with transnational consequences (ecosystemic crises coupled with state fragility, epidemics, and large-scale migration) there would be a dramatic escalation in unmet needs. The significant difference between the capacity of the humanitarian ecosystem and the level of need in the Overflow scenario means that there are no crises in which the humanitarian ecosystem can respond well. Due to a lack of space and funding to intervene strategically or challenge structural inequalities, the ability of the humanitarian ecosystem to effectively respond to crises in middle- and high-income countries or to champion the cause of minority and targeted groups is limited.”

Source: IARAN (2016)

What’s new in Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation?

Some of the dynamics that we would like to focus on more strongly in the updated study include increased opportunities and risks of digitalization, growing and intensifying disasters incurred by natural hazards and the push for the decolonization of aid. Key to this study will be to reflect the full diversity of the actors involved in the humanitarian ecosystem from community-based organizations to large-scale private funders while understanding that local communities and crisis-affected people are at the centre of every response and respecting their role as leaders today.

Who is leading this?

To ensure that this study lives the transformation of the sector that we are aiming to support, we have developed a strong governance structure including a Steering Committee and Academic Committee (See below to see the members).

• Steering group. A core advisory group of respected leaders and humanitarian voices to lend their expertise in advising and guiding the project. This group is comprised of more than 10 organizations who represent a broad base of local and international actors, researchers, implementers and donors.

• Academic panel. The committee includes a mix of foresight advisors and humanitarian research practitioners. They each bring unique expertise from different schools of foresight; research focuses and represent academic traditions from across the world. They join us from Colombia, Nigeria, Paris, Singapore and many places in-between.

Research design

The theory underpinning this study brings together approaches from two different schools of futures, the French school La Prospective, one of the foundational schools of foresight studies, and Casual Layered Analysis (CLA), an innovative approach to delving deeper beneath the surface, pioneered by Sohail Inayatullah.

As with all foresight studies, the goal of foresight in the Future of Aid is “not aim to predict the future [...] but to help us build it”. As such, the outputs and outcomes of this project don’t aim to provide exact forecasts about what is going to happen in the coming years in the humanitarian sector, but rather explore possible scenarios to be used in support of strategic planning for aid actors. Once completed, these scenarios will be used to design pathways to transformation. This will take the format of tools and guidelines for organizational change and leadership transformation for key actors navigating the humanitarian ecosystem. If we are to collectively build a new a future, we must undertake this journey of transformation together and reinforce each other’s progress at every opportunity.

Next steps

We want as many voices as possible to join the Future of Aid study. To complement the series of structured seminars we will be hosting seminars and open surveys. If you want to participate you can do so in two possible ways:

1. To participate as an individual: you can follow Future of Aid project on IARAN and CHL’s social media accounts (on X and LinkedIn) and join in when we publish surveys or calls for comments.

2. To participate as an organization/network: if you are part of an organization/network and you would like to join the project we can work with you to design a series of structured seminars.

Our first survey focuses on gathering your input on the dominant narratives that define humanitarian work, unpacking the system of drivers which affect change and considering the worldviews that underpin the structures implementing humanitarian aid. We want to learn what humanitarians working all over the world believe are myths, metaphors and images that unconsciously define what it means to be a humanitarian actor.

You can fulfil this survey using clicking in the button below:

Deadline: January 31 2025

Stay connected

For more information about the Future of Aid project and other initiatives discussed today, visit our website at iaran.org and the centreforhumanitarianleadership.org. You can also write futureofaid@iaran.org.

Signing Members of the Steering Committee

Alibashir Ibrahim, Organization for Sustainable Development Africa (OSDA)

Jeanne Gapiya, ANSS

Mohammad Riaz Rammeen, Rural Movement Organization (RMO)

Diyan Muhsin Gawdan, Women Now for Development

Kiara Zoe Canete, The Hague Humanitarian Studies Centre, International Institute of Social Studies Erasmus University Rotterdam

Puji Pujiono, Pujiono Centre and Convenor of Indonesia Development Humanitarian Assistance

Matthias Alming, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)

Jade Legrand, Save the Children International

Sebastian Lagorce, Croix Rouge Française

Emanuelle Pons, Croix Rouge Française

Xavier Castellanos, International Federation Red Cross

Karine Maux, Fondation de France

Signing Members of the Executive Committee

Dr. Josh Hallwright, CHL

Eilidh Kennedy, IARAN

Michel Maietta, IARAN

Associate Professor Mary Ana McGlasson, CHL

Mariana Merelo, IARAN