Matt Thomas, Fellow
Matt Thomas
Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts ...

Two years of huge emergency after huge emergency - from the Covid-19 pandemic’s various variants to evacuations from Afghanistan and a series of storms battering the UK - our people are tired, yet the need for humanitarian aid continues to grow. And then the Ukraine crisis boiled over.

We have always struggled to plan for the many uncertainties the future may bring, but the massive disruptions of the last couple of years made us realise that grappling with uncertainty is not an option.

The British Red Cross’s Strategic Insight and Foresight team has been developing a way to rapidly construct scenarios about the future, helping our teams get a sense of likely people’s short-term and longer-term humanitarian needs, as well as the potential ripple effects caused by a crisis.

Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts of the Ukraine conflict
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The future of humanitarian NGOs: implementing a risk management framework

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The future of humanitarian NGOs: implementing a risk management framework

NGOs today need modernized structures and governance to remain effective and competitive. A proactive approach to risk management—covering identification, assessment, mitigation, and monitoring of risks like cybersecurity, climate change, and ESG factors—is essential for resilience. Governance within ESG is especially vital for sustainable financing. Transparency and compliance, alongside skills in strategic planning and risk management, strengthen reputation and stakeholder trust. As NGOs adapt to a rapidly changing environment, a tailored risk management approach helps ensure operational stability, financial health, and the continued effectiveness of their missions amidst complex global challenges.

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The struggle between Growth and Natural Conservation in the Global South

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The struggle between Growth and Natural Conservation in the Global South

This article delves into the critical tension between economic development and environmental preservation in some of the world's most vulnerable regions. By analyzing recent trends and leveraging strategic foresight, we provide a comprehensive overview of potential future scenarios and their implications. This piece for professionals and academics interested in understanding the evolving dynamics of sustainable development. Whether you are seeking to stay ahead of the curve or simply broaden your knowledge, this article offers valuable insights and actionable takeaways.

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South Asia’s Escalating Climate Crisis: Confronting the Displacement Dilemma

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South Asia’s Escalating Climate Crisis: Confronting the Displacement Dilemma

Rising sea levels, soaring temperatures, dwindling resources, and extreme weather events have inundated our headlines this decade. As the climate crisis intensifies, its impact on human displacement is also becoming increasingly evident. While the awareness of climate-related adversities is gaining traction globally, international law is yet to provide a legal framework for those displaced by severe climatic events. The term ‘climate refugees’ remains largely unrecognized under international humanitarian law since most climate-induced migration is localized within national borders. This gap in legal recognition becomes increasingly concerning as projections indicate that around 1.2 billion people may be displaced by 2050 due to climate-related disasters.

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Futures of Mobility in Mexico City

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Futures of Mobility in Mexico City

The "Doble Hoy No Circula" initiative has been an important measure to mitigate air quality within Mexico City's Comprehensive Program Against Atmospheric Pollution (PICCA). This measure was implemented as an urgent response to the growing air quality crisis. It current model began in 2014, aiming to restrict the use of private vehicles on specific days to reduce pollutant emissions and improve public health. In a megacity like Mexico City, where mobility and pollution are interconnected, policies like this affect not only the environment but also the health and well-being of its inhabitants.

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Futuros de la Movilidad en la Ciudad de México

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Futuros de la Movilidad en la Ciudad de México

El programa "Doble Hoy No Circula" ha sido una medida ambiental significativa en la Ciudad de México. Esta fue implementada como una respuesta urgente a la creciente crisis de calidad del aire. Inició en 2014 buscando restringir el uso de vehículos particulares en días específicos para así poder reducir las emisiones contaminantes y mejorar la salud pública. En una megaciudad como lo es la Ciudad de México, donde la movilidad y la contaminación están conectadas, las políticas como esta no solo afectan al medio ambiente sino también la salud y el bienestar de sus habitantes. La pregunta central planteada en este artículo es: ¿Qué impacto ha tenido el programa “Doble Hoy No Circula” en la calidad del aire y la movilidad en la Ciudad de México, y cómo podría evolucionar en el futuro para anticipar un escenario más sustentable?

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Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening

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Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening

The article titled "Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening" addresses the vital interplay between diplomacy and health system support in conflict-ridden areas. Through the lens of Humanitarian Diplomacy (HD) and Global Health Diplomacy (GHD), the piece advocates for a nuanced, integrated approach embodied by the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus. This approach seeks to unify immediate relief with long-term development and peace efforts, using diplomacy as a tool to navigate the complex challenges faced by health systems in such settings, thereby ensuring sustainable health improvements and the safeguarding of human rights.

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Digital transformation: Accelerating Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in humanitarian settings.

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Digital transformation: Accelerating Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in humanitarian settings.


In this article, Miguel Castillo, a healthcare professional with over 10 years of experience at field level and hospital-based facilities in conflict-affected, developing and western countries, discusses his experience during the Rohingya crisis, highlighting the critical role of digital solutions in enhancing healthcare in humanitarian settings. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of such technologies, improving healthcare coverage globally, including in crisis-affected areas. The focus is on the digital transformation of health services, emphasizing the importance of technological infrastructure and the challenges in transitioning to digital systems. Key aspects include the expansion of 5G technology and increased smartphone accessibility, especially in low-and-middle-income countries. The article projects a significant rise in smartphone adoption by 2030, driven by affordability, and explores how these advancements improve health coverage in humanitarian situations.

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Humans and machines, imagining futures together

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Humans and machines, imagining futures together

This article explores the integration of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in foresight practices. Foresight, at its core, involves diverse perspectives envisioning future scenarios. Matthew Thomas, as part of the British Red Cross, discusses the rapid use of AI tools, specifically ChatGPT, Bing AI, and Perplexity, to sketch scenarios with a case study related to the UK's cost of living crisis. Although, initial results were unimpressive, with limitations in scenario generation, the article highlights the potential for AI to augment foresight practice, aiding in analysis and content generation for scenario creation.

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Insight, hindsight, foresight: a personal story on how a collaborative foresight approach to support radical humanitarian ecosystem change came about and is evolving

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Insight, hindsight, foresight: a personal story on how a collaborative foresight approach to support radical humanitarian ecosystem change came about and is evolving

The following article is a personal story from our fellow Mariana Merelo: In the winter of 2019, after two decades as a humanitarian and development practitioner, Mariana found questioning her role in driving systemic change within the humanitarian ecosystem. Despite being surrounded by passionate change-makers, including foresight experts, partnership advocates, and local champions, she felt stuck in the wrong vehicle for change. Mariana had worked for a prominent INGO, which espoused a commitment to empower local actors and crisis-affected communities in decision-making and emergency responses. However, a glaring gap existed between the organization's rhetoric and tangible actions. It was not until she found collaborative foresight, as a co-created and co-evolving approach to explore alternative futures that she found a response to the previous challenge.

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The future of (anti)corruption

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The future of (anti)corruption

While anti-corruption efforts are on the rise, challenges persist, including declining global peace, weakening democracies, a shift to a multipolar world, cybersecurity threats, declining ethical standards, and evolving technology. Despite these obstacles, there's a growing global focus on anti-corruption measures, with organizations and governments working together. However, the future remains uncertain, with potential developments like AI-driven corruption and innovative technologies offering both risks and opportunities.

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The demographic dividend in Mexico is over, what are the risks and opportunities for an elderly society in Mexico in 2050?

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The demographic dividend in Mexico is over, what are the risks and opportunities for an elderly society in Mexico in 2050?

Mexico's demographic shift from a youthful population to an aging society by 2050 brings both challenges and opportunities. The median age is projected to rise from 27.9 to 42 years. Scenarios include a "Growth Scenario" with economic strength but pension system concerns, a "Collapse Scenario" depicting institutional breakdown and grassroots responses, a "Limits & Discipline Scenario" with elderly power leading to youth drain, and a "Transformation Scenario" driven by comprehensive reforms and a care economy. Proactive measures like nurturing a "silver economy," migrant integration, and financial education are recommended to shape a favorable future amid demographic changes.

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Building Tomorrow: Exploring Future Landscapes for Child Rights through Strategic Foresight

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Building Tomorrow: Exploring Future Landscapes for Child Rights through Strategic Foresight

Save the Children Italia is undergoing a strategic transformation guided by IARAN to navigate contemporary multidimensional shifts. Engaging around 100 staff, the organization employs a foresight-based approach to explore potential future contexts until 2030. Through a collaborative process, key drivers have been identified and detailed in "Driver Files." This article narrates the example of "Geopolitical Shifts" and highlights the evolving global political landscape's impact on democracy, civil liberties, populism, and international relations. This exercise encourages systemic thinking, breaks silos, and challenges hierarchical dynamics, emphasizing collective intelligence to inform strategic choices and adapt to a changing world.

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Unleashing Local Potential: Advancing Aid Localization in Ukraine

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Unleashing Local Potential: Advancing Aid Localization in Ukraine

"Unleashing Local Potential: Advancing Aid Localization in Ukraine" delves into the critical importance of bringing power and resources closer to the communities in need. The article highlights the crisis in Ukraine as a turning point for advancing the localization agenda in humanitarian aid. By recognizing the capabilities of local actors and addressing the challenges they face, the article advocates for a transformative approach that empowers Ukrainian civil society and fosters effective localization of aid.

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Navigating the Resistance: Cultural Transformation in Humanitarian Organizations

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Navigating the Resistance: Cultural Transformation in Humanitarian Organizations

Innovation in the humanitarian sector is a challenging journey, often hindered by cultural resistance. However, with a transformation strategy, leadership support, and a culture open to change, these obstacles can be overcome. Strategic foresight, which anticipates future trends and proactively develops solutions, can greatly enhance this process. External pressures, like the COVID-19 pandemic, can also catalyze cultural transformation, prompting organizations to rethink traditional ways and embrace innovation.

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Livelihood support for migrants is a excellent investment

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Livelihood support for migrants is a excellent investment

The world is facing a severe economic downturn, but the flow of remittances has been relatively stable and continues to provide support for many families in low and middle-income countries. According to the World Bank, global remittance flows reached $626 billion in 2022, an increase of 5% from the previous year. This growth is smaller than in previous years, but it is significant given the economic outlook. Investing in livelihoods support for migrants in high-income countries could be an effective way of supporting communities globally.

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Breaking the Short-Termism Trap

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Breaking the Short-Termism Trap

The humanitarian ecosystem is failing to adapt to global transformations and new types of crises. This failure is rooted in the opportunistic nature of ODA flow governance and the entrenched value chain of formal humanitarian actors. To break free from this short-termism trap, the humanitarian ecosystem must shift its approach and values, prioritizing the needs and voices of those affected by humanitarian crises. Only then can it fulfill its potential to provide effective and lasting assistance.

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Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts of the Ukraine conflict

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Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts of the Ukraine conflict

Two years of huge emergency after huge emergency - from the Covid-19 pandemic’s various variants to evacuations from Afghanistan and a series of storms battering the UK - our people are tired, yet the need for humanitarian aid continues to grow. And then the Ukraine crisis boiled over.

We have always struggled to plan for the many uncertainties the future may bring, but the massive disruptions of the last couple of years made us realise that grappling with uncertainty is not an option.

The British Red Cross’s Strategic Insight and Foresight team has been developing a way to rapidly construct scenarios about the future, helping our teams get a sense of likely people’s short-term and longer-term humanitarian needs, as well as the potential ripple effects caused by a crisis.

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Measure for Measure: On Shakespeare and Impact Evaluation

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Measure for Measure: On Shakespeare and Impact Evaluation

Evaluations of humanitarian interventions can broadly be divided into two categories: process and impact. While a process evaluation seeks to examine how the intervention was delivered and if the conduct or context influenced the outcome, an impact evaluation seeks to understand the causality between the intervention and the “positive and negative, primary and secondary long-term effects produced …, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended” (OECD-DAC 2010), in short, the impact. In my experience, this is the more commonly requested type of evaluation, particularly from, and to reassure, donors, who above all want to see and share tangible results.

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Working Together: INGOs and Building Communities Beyond Dichotomies in Humanitarian Aid

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Working Together: INGOs and Building Communities Beyond Dichotomies in Humanitarian Aid

Along with other organisations in the formal humanitarian aid sector, the way in which large INGOS operate has been under challenge for some time. They have been legitimately criticised for holding nearly all decision-making in programme design and financial power at international level in their “Global North” headquarters, while engaging with national and local partners in the “Global South” in sub-contracting relationships. The need for reform or even transformation is broadly defined as “localisation” – the shifting of power to the “South” and the “local.” Recently, the issue has taken on a new urgency due to practical challenges to traditional operating models posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, and moral-ethical challenges posed by a renewed focus on racial discrimination and injustices, alongside continued concerns about gender equity in the sector.


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From Afghan Voices to Afghan Choices – humanitarian actors in Afghanistan need to up their game

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From Afghan Voices to Afghan Choices – humanitarian actors in Afghanistan need to up their game

Afghanistan is one of the countries that received the highest amount of ODI over the past 20 years, yet poverty has lately been on the rise. Aid is heavily politicized and the fight against corruption has shown limited success. Consequently, the aid sector is affected by a fundamental lack of trust: high ranking officials of the Afghan government have repeatedly expressed their distrust of aid actors

The future awaits.