Matt Thomas, Fellow
Matt Thomas
Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts ...

Two years of huge emergency after huge emergency - from the Covid-19 pandemic’s various variants to evacuations from Afghanistan and a series of storms battering the UK - our people are tired, yet the need for humanitarian aid continues to grow. And then the Ukraine crisis boiled over.

We have always struggled to plan for the many uncertainties the future may bring, but the massive disruptions of the last couple of years made us realise that grappling with uncertainty is not an option.

The British Red Cross’s Strategic Insight and Foresight team has been developing a way to rapidly construct scenarios about the future, helping our teams get a sense of likely people’s short-term and longer-term humanitarian needs, as well as the potential ripple effects caused by a crisis.

Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts of the Ukraine conflict

Ecosystemic Crisis

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Futures of Mobility in Mexico City

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Futures of Mobility in Mexico City

The "Doble Hoy No Circula" initiative has been an important measure to mitigate air quality within Mexico City's Comprehensive Program Against Atmospheric Pollution (PICCA). This measure was implemented as an urgent response to the growing air quality crisis. It current model began in 2014, aiming to restrict the use of private vehicles on specific days to reduce pollutant emissions and improve public health. In a megacity like Mexico City, where mobility and pollution are interconnected, policies like this affect not only the environment but also the health and well-being of its inhabitants.

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El dilema recurrente del COVID-19 y la trampa de la ultra-solución

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El dilema recurrente del COVID-19 y la trampa de la ultra-solución

Acabar con los encierros es, como lo define Paul Watzlawick, “una ultra-solución”: un intento de arreglar un problema deshaciéndose de todo lo que tenga que ver con el mismo. Al caer en esta trampa, los gobiernos están utilizando la ultra-solución, arriesgándose a destruir tanto la economía, como la vida de las personas al final del túnel.


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Caution! Aid re-construction zone

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Caution! Aid re-construction zone

With problems on the rise ‘at home’, criticism of foreign aid is stronger than ever. At the same time, humanitarian needs are growing, and far outpacing the funding requirements and government commitments needed to address the short- and long-term consequences of crises. What lies in store for aid organisations?

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L’humanitaire maritime : un incubateur de nouvelles approches

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L’humanitaire maritime : un incubateur de nouvelles approches

Depuis une décennie, les besoins humanitaires ne cessent d’évoluer, s’intensifiant et se complexifiant. En 2015, selon l’UNHCR, 65.3 millions de personnes étaient déplacées. Parmi celles-ci, 21.3 millions sont des réfugiés au titre de la convention de 1951 et la très grande majorité d’entre eux le sont dans un pays voisin. Seule une minorité de 6% sont accueillis en Europe. Malgré cette faible proportion, la crise migratoire à laquelle est confrontée l’Europe depuis 2014 a contribué à mettre en avant les fragilités du système humanitaire traditionnel.

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How important is the motivation of actors in maintaining humanitarian space?

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How important is the motivation of actors in maintaining humanitarian space?

The growth in the humanitarian sector to include private companies as partners and implementers challenges the notion that organizations working in the humanitarian sector must be driven by the humanitarian imperative alone. The inclusion of commercial firms whose fundamental purpose is to make a profit necessitates an examination of the consequences when the humanitarian imperative is but one of many motivations.

The future awaits.