Complexity

The breaking point

The breaking point

In a world facing "polycrisis"—overlapping, prolonged crises—the real challenge isn't just the shocks themselves, but our collective inability to perceive and respond to them effectively. These crises, whether economic or environmental, build up slowly and unnoticed until they reach a breaking point. As John Maynard Keynes observed, the public often overreacts with "excessive fears" to events they previously ignored, showing a lack of "reasonable anxiety" when it was needed. Economist Gabriel Palma described a three-phase cycle: a period of "lack-of-awareness" where problems grow, followed by a moment of "awareness" and panic, which ultimately gives way to a "new form of lack-of-awareness" where the initial fear fades and the underlying issues are forgotten again. This cycle of denial and reaction makes it difficult for societies to address the root causes, leading to flawed, reactive policies instead of lasting structural repairs.