From foresight to action — the second phase of Future of Aid 2040
Phase 2 of Future of Aid 2040 moved the conversation from scenarios to solutions. Through workshops on four continents and consultations with nearly 900 practitioners, we co-created practical pathways for local, intermediary and enabling actors to become fit for the futures ahead — and translated those pathways into two new resources: a Report, and a Guide your organisation can use today.
After Phase 1 mapped four plausible futures for aid in 2040, Phase 2 asked the harder question: what now?
Pathways to Transformation was designed to translate foresight insight into something organisations can act on. Rather than prescribe a single future-proof model — which would defeat the purpose of scenario thinking — it set out to:
Co-create future-fit value propositions for three categories of actors: local, intermediary, and enabling — grounded in the four 2040 scenarios and the Causal Layered Analysis insights of Phase 1.
Build complementarity across the aid ecosystem, starting with local leadership and extending outward to intermediaries and enablers.
Develop a practical toolkit that organisations could pick up and use — not another framework to be read and shelved.
Phase 2 - the process
Phase 2 ran as a global, iterative consultation process linking online sessions with face-to-face workshops in Addis Ababa, Medan, Berlin, Jakarta, Uzhhorod, Makassar, Mexico City and Rome.
Virtual consultations introduced the four 2040 scenarios and asked participants to identify and rank the levers of transformation most relevant to their own organisations.
Local actors in Eastern Europe, Central America, South-East Asia, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa analysed the scenarios, mapped value chains and fragilities, and co-designed future-fit profiles for their context.
Intermediary actors built on those local insights to define complementary roles and competencies, refining proposals through joint iteration sessions in Europe and Asia.
Local and intermediary actors reconvened to validate the emerging value propositions and stress-test complementarity between roles.
Enabling actors — donors, networks and coordination bodies — reviewed the consolidated results and co-designed the incentive mechanisms required to make transformation possible.
In total, nearly 500 practitioners and thought leaders shaped the work.
Future of Aid Phase 2 outputs
The Phase 2 – Transforming Actors report uses an overarching value chain to represent the activities that are critical for the implementation of aid and proposes new archetypes of what different organisations in an effective aid system could look like.
When considering how to operationalise change towards an aid system in which local leadership is the norm and responsiveness to community demands is mainstreamed, it can be a useful first step to start from a shared map of what the system actually does. A value chain is a simple and effective way to do that.
Unlike in corporate settings, we do not propose to use a value chain to find areas of competitive advantage; rather, we use this analysis to determine how different actors can collectively contribute to impact for crisis‑affected people in a coordinated and complementary way.
Organisational archetypes
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Convenes coalitions, runs shared platforms, and builds trust and accountability across actors in its space. It focuses on coordination, pooled learning, and collective advocacy, with membership dues and funded coordination as its main support model.
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Protects civic space and rights by anticipating shocks, documenting harm, supporting legal defence, and shaping narratives and policy. It acts as a watchdog and strategist rather than a large service provider, grounding its work in community priorities and rights-based change.
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Provides long-term, trusted support before, during, and after crises through everyday services, mutual aid, and practical problem-solving. Its value lies in proximity, continuity, and legitimacy, supported by flexible funding, local resource mobilisation, and hybrid income sources.
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Creates and maintains shared infrastructure such as pooled funds, learning platforms, data commons, and joint accountability systems. It enables collaboration, reduces duplication, and supports mutual learning through member-controlled governance and fees for shared services.
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Connects finance, knowledge, and political access to locally led initiatives while minimizing compliance burdens. It acts as a lean conduit for resources, with local partners retaining oversight and decision-making over how funds are used.
The Future of Aid: Transforming Actors report endeavours to capture visions of different kinds of civil society organisations that would be effective actors across multiple future contexts. The very core of these ideas is that the future needs to be one defined by plurality, respect and collaboration; not all organisations will look the same, be governed by the same norms or speak the same language, but leveraging these differences is where greater impact can be found.
The outputs of this study are not prescriptive. They are intended to be a companion to the Pathways to Transformation (P2T) guide which organisations can use to lead their own journey of transformation.
Transformtion: a deliberate process of rethinking what an organisation does, how it works, and with whom — driven by an honest look at the present and a shared vision for the future.
The Pathways to Transformation (P2T) guide that accompanies the Phase 2 report provides a practical companion for organisations looking to define the future for themselves. This includes: detailed steps, timings and facilitation tips for drawing the tree (Stage 1); testing it in futures (Stage 2); and backcasting a pathway of transformation (Stage 3).
Sensing Exercise — start your stock-taking in 15 minutes
Before the Report. Before the Guide. Before the strategy day. Sense where your organisation actually stands.
The P2T Sensing Exercise is a quick, organisational stock-taking — a lightweight entry point into the Pathways to Transformation method. In about fifteen minutes, it invites your team to pause and ask the simple, difficult questions the Guide opens with: What do we actually contribute? Who benefits from our work? Which parts of our organisation are rooted in real trust and legitimacy, and which are more fragile than we admit?
It is not a diagnostic, and it is not a score. It is a first honest look — a way to surface where the energy and friction in your organisation already sit, before you commit time and people to the deeper four-stage journey set out in the Guide.
Use it to:
Open a leadership conversation about readiness for transformation.
Identify which of the four P2T stages your organisation most needs to begin with.
Bring teams into the conversation early, in their own words.
Decide whether — and where — to invest further.
Start the Sensing Exercise → 15 minutes · No login required · Best in a small group
Support for P2T Guide facilitators
The P2T Guide is structured so that it can be implemented by organisations themselves. To help in this endeavour, facilitators can find some additional support materials below.
Facilitators Presentation - A pre-filled powerpoint presentation, structured by stage with slides summarising the Future of Aid 2040 analysis where it is relevant, as well as instructions to help you explain every exercise you will facilitate. You can edit this presentation, complete with your own material and use it a facilitation support at every stage of the Guide.
Leadership Readiness Platform - As additional support for Stage 0 - Leadership Readiness Exercise linked below you will find an open resource where the leadership survey is pre-loaded onto a platform that requires you to only enter the names, positions, relationship and email address of the participants and raters you would like to consult. The platform will send the relevant survey link to each participant and rater for their evaluation and, when you are ready, produce the subsequent output summary.
Feedback on the P2T Guide
We are eager to hear from organisations using the P2T Guide and capture any feedback you may have on what was useful and what can be improved. All comments will be registered and used to update and improve the Guide for future users.
Please use the form below to share any feedback on the P2T Guide with us directly!