Matt Thomas, Fellow
Matt Thomas
Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts ...

Two years of huge emergency after huge emergency - from the Covid-19 pandemic’s various variants to evacuations from Afghanistan and a series of storms battering the UK - our people are tired, yet the need for humanitarian aid continues to grow. And then the Ukraine crisis boiled over.

We have always struggled to plan for the many uncertainties the future may bring, but the massive disruptions of the last couple of years made us realise that grappling with uncertainty is not an option.

The British Red Cross’s Strategic Insight and Foresight team has been developing a way to rapidly construct scenarios about the future, helping our teams get a sense of likely people’s short-term and longer-term humanitarian needs, as well as the potential ripple effects caused by a crisis.

Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts of the Ukraine conflict

Foresight

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South Asia’s Escalating Climate Crisis: Confronting the Displacement Dilemma

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South Asia’s Escalating Climate Crisis: Confronting the Displacement Dilemma

Rising sea levels, soaring temperatures, dwindling resources, and extreme weather events have inundated our headlines this decade. As the climate crisis intensifies, its impact on human displacement is also becoming increasingly evident. While the awareness of climate-related adversities is gaining traction globally, international law is yet to provide a legal framework for those displaced by severe climatic events. The term ‘climate refugees’ remains largely unrecognized under international humanitarian law since most climate-induced migration is localized within national borders. This gap in legal recognition becomes increasingly concerning as projections indicate that around 1.2 billion people may be displaced by 2050 due to climate-related disasters.

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Futures of Mobility in Mexico City

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Futures of Mobility in Mexico City

The "Doble Hoy No Circula" initiative has been an important measure to mitigate air quality within Mexico City's Comprehensive Program Against Atmospheric Pollution (PICCA). This measure was implemented as an urgent response to the growing air quality crisis. It current model began in 2014, aiming to restrict the use of private vehicles on specific days to reduce pollutant emissions and improve public health. In a megacity like Mexico City, where mobility and pollution are interconnected, policies like this affect not only the environment but also the health and well-being of its inhabitants.

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Futuros de la Movilidad en la Ciudad de México

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Futuros de la Movilidad en la Ciudad de México

El programa "Doble Hoy No Circula" ha sido una medida ambiental significativa en la Ciudad de México. Esta fue implementada como una respuesta urgente a la creciente crisis de calidad del aire. Inició en 2014 buscando restringir el uso de vehículos particulares en días específicos para así poder reducir las emisiones contaminantes y mejorar la salud pública. En una megaciudad como lo es la Ciudad de México, donde la movilidad y la contaminación están conectadas, las políticas como esta no solo afectan al medio ambiente sino también la salud y el bienestar de sus habitantes. La pregunta central planteada en este artículo es: ¿Qué impacto ha tenido el programa “Doble Hoy No Circula” en la calidad del aire y la movilidad en la Ciudad de México, y cómo podría evolucionar en el futuro para anticipar un escenario más sustentable?

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Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening

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Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening

The article titled "Navigating the Triple Nexus: Leveraging Diplomatic Synergies for Health Systems Strengthening" addresses the vital interplay between diplomacy and health system support in conflict-ridden areas. Through the lens of Humanitarian Diplomacy (HD) and Global Health Diplomacy (GHD), the piece advocates for a nuanced, integrated approach embodied by the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus. This approach seeks to unify immediate relief with long-term development and peace efforts, using diplomacy as a tool to navigate the complex challenges faced by health systems in such settings, thereby ensuring sustainable health improvements and the safeguarding of human rights.

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Humans and machines, imagining futures together

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Humans and machines, imagining futures together

This article explores the integration of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in foresight practices. Foresight, at its core, involves diverse perspectives envisioning future scenarios. Matthew Thomas, as part of the British Red Cross, discusses the rapid use of AI tools, specifically ChatGPT, Bing AI, and Perplexity, to sketch scenarios with a case study related to the UK's cost of living crisis. Although, initial results were unimpressive, with limitations in scenario generation, the article highlights the potential for AI to augment foresight practice, aiding in analysis and content generation for scenario creation.

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Navigating the Resistance: Cultural Transformation in Humanitarian Organizations

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Navigating the Resistance: Cultural Transformation in Humanitarian Organizations

Innovation in the humanitarian sector is a challenging journey, often hindered by cultural resistance. However, with a transformation strategy, leadership support, and a culture open to change, these obstacles can be overcome. Strategic foresight, which anticipates future trends and proactively develops solutions, can greatly enhance this process. External pressures, like the COVID-19 pandemic, can also catalyze cultural transformation, prompting organizations to rethink traditional ways and embrace innovation.

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Breaking the Short-Termism Trap

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Breaking the Short-Termism Trap

The humanitarian ecosystem is failing to adapt to global transformations and new types of crises. This failure is rooted in the opportunistic nature of ODA flow governance and the entrenched value chain of formal humanitarian actors. To break free from this short-termism trap, the humanitarian ecosystem must shift its approach and values, prioritizing the needs and voices of those affected by humanitarian crises. Only then can it fulfill its potential to provide effective and lasting assistance.

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Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts of the Ukraine conflict

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Rapidly exploring future humanitarian impacts of the Ukraine conflict

Two years of huge emergency after huge emergency - from the Covid-19 pandemic’s various variants to evacuations from Afghanistan and a series of storms battering the UK - our people are tired, yet the need for humanitarian aid continues to grow. And then the Ukraine crisis boiled over.

We have always struggled to plan for the many uncertainties the future may bring, but the massive disruptions of the last couple of years made us realise that grappling with uncertainty is not an option.

The British Red Cross’s Strategic Insight and Foresight team has been developing a way to rapidly construct scenarios about the future, helping our teams get a sense of likely people’s short-term and longer-term humanitarian needs, as well as the potential ripple effects caused by a crisis.

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The politics of knowledge and the future of aid

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The politics of knowledge and the future of aid

Universities and research centers are important, non-traditional, humanitarian actors that actively participate in knowledge production and cadre formation for the sector, with a preponderance of global North institutions over the ones from the South.

There are, at least, three areas of opportunity for Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in the global North to engage productively with the principles and objectives of the Grand Bargain proposed during the World Humanitarian Summit of 2016, so that humanitarian knowledge production can also jump into the “localization” wagon:

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El dilema recurrente del COVID-19 y la trampa de la ultra-solución

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El dilema recurrente del COVID-19 y la trampa de la ultra-solución

Acabar con los encierros es, como lo define Paul Watzlawick, “una ultra-solución”: un intento de arreglar un problema deshaciéndose de todo lo que tenga que ver con el mismo. Al caer en esta trampa, los gobiernos están utilizando la ultra-solución, arriesgándose a destruir tanto la economía, como la vida de las personas al final del túnel.


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Caution! Aid re-construction zone

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Caution! Aid re-construction zone

With problems on the rise ‘at home’, criticism of foreign aid is stronger than ever. At the same time, humanitarian needs are growing, and far outpacing the funding requirements and government commitments needed to address the short- and long-term consequences of crises. What lies in store for aid organisations?

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Using the Future to Humanity’s Advantage

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Using the Future to Humanity’s Advantage

$1 spent in preparedness saves $7 in humanitarian response (1). Humanitarians working in disaster preparedness, early warning, and resilience building have all heard this before. Though it may satisfy public and private donors for reasons of accountability and a no-regrets approach to programming, we need to push past this statistic. What is the true value of pre-empting the future when working in humanitarian response?

The future awaits.