Who are climate refugees?

Rising sea levels, soaring temperatures, dwindling resources, and extreme weather events have inundated our headlines this decade. As the climate crisis intensifies, its impact on human displacement is also becoming increasingly evident. While the awareness of climate-related adversities is gaining traction globally, international law is yet to provide a legal framework for those displaced by severe climatic events.

To decipher why legal protections are lagging, it is important to explore the kinds of refugees who are protected under international law. According to the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, a refugee is defined as someone who is persecuted based on race, religion, nationality, or membership to a specific political or social group and is unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin due to the fear of persecution [i][ii]. In contrast to the vast global reach of the established refugee convention, the term ‘climate refugees’ is relatively new in the humanitarian arena. In 1985, the term was first used by ‘Essam El-Hinnawi’ referring to people displaced due to climatic disruptions [iii]. Despite this, the term ‘climate refugees’ remains largely unrecognized under international humanitarian law since most climate-induced migration is localized within national borders[iii][iv].

This gap in legal recognition becomes increasingly a cause for concern when considering the projections in displacement numbers globally. The Institute of Economics and Peace, an independent peace-focused think tank, estimates that around 1.2 billion people are likely to be displaced by 2050 due to climate-related disasters if the level of climate disasters continues at the same pace.. This is an imminent problem as the number of displaced persons over this decade has seen a dramatic increase; 41% more people have been displaced in this decade as compared to the previous [v]. This decade has seen the highest number of people displaced as compared to any previous historical period underscoring the urgency of the issue [v].

The legal status of refugees in South Asia

As we delve into the legal framework surrounding refugees, it’s crucial to understand how this escalating crisis intersects with existing international protections within Asia. As the most densely populated continent, Asia is particularly vulnerable to sociopolitical unrest that follows diminishing resources. This situation is exacerbated due to the region's specific geological location and risk of extreme climatic events, making it crucial to address the unique challenges faced by climate refugees in this context. To understand climate refugees in Asia, it is important to first explore the basis of international refugee law.

The 1951 Convention of Refugees alongside the 1967 Protocol formed the foundation of the international refugee regime [vi]. The 1967 Protocol built upon the 1951 Convention and removed time-bound and geographical focus of the initial convention. This change meant that the Convention was now universal [vi]. 149 of 193 UN member states have ratified the UN Convention of Refugees [vi]. Of the 44 states who have not ratified the convention, the vast majority are in Asia with a concentration in the Middle East, South and South East Asia [vi]. Within South Asia, home to the world’s largest refugee camp, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and, Sri Lanka have yet to ratify the refugee convention [vi].

The lack of formal recognition towards the refugee regime impacts many persecuted groups in the region who have very minimal legal support within their host countries. For instance, the Rohingya refugees of Myanmar are one of the most persecuted groups in the world with 1 million refugees seeking asylum in the world’s largest refugee camp at Kutupalong, Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh [vii][viii]. Over 20,000 Rohingya refugees are also seeking asylum in India’s border states [vii][viii].

Unfortunately, in India, many organizations working on behalf of Rohingya refugees have been threatened or silenced when speaking out about refugee related issues including the refoulment of refugees back to their countries of origin [vii]. The Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) has suggested that policies affecting refugees are ineffective in India due to the lack of an overarching domestic refugee legal framework within the country [ix]; this lack of a comprehensive domestic legal system to protect the vulnerable leads to a haphazard approach in addressing these issues with no clear and direct lines of authority or accountability [ix].

In Pakistan and Sri Lanka, a similar issue is visible. Second and third-generation Afghanis experiencing long-term, protracted displacement within Pakistan are victims of heavy discrimination [x]. 1.35 million Afghan refugees live in Pakistan alone with many more spread across the region [x]. Despite this alarming number of Afghani refugees in Pakistan, an APEX committee within the country has initiated a plan to repatriate over 1 million foreigners in 2023 [x]; the main focus of these ‘foreigners’ are Afghani refugees who do not have legal asylum within the country. Similarly, despite the small numbers, refugees in Sri Lanka also receive minimal benefits. With just over 1,000 refugees registered through UNHCR, none are eligible to access education and employment but luckily, have access to basic healthcare facilities [xi].

These issues highlight the broader challenges facing South Asia, where weak institutions and a lack of ratification of the Refugee Convention contribute to an environment of fear and instability for asylum seekers. Asylum seekers in many South Asian countries struggle to meet their basic needs, while climate-related, cross-border migration introduces additional layers of complexity. The novelty of this issue globally means there are few existing legal frameworks to address these new dynamics effectively and in a timely manner.

The effects of climate change in South Asia: an overview

South Asia’s geographical region is particularly vulnerable to severe climate disasters. Extreme flooding, droughts, high variability in rainfall, cyclones, and unbearable heat are common occurrences in the region [xii]. In a 2012 World Bank publication, a distressing statistic was published: over 750 million people (i.e. more than half the South Asian population at the time) were affected by a single or several climate-related disasters in the region in the previous two decades alone [xiii]. This number is likely to be much higher today.

For example, in 2022, over 33 million people were affected due to heavy flooding in Pakistan [xiv]. This was quickly followed by a lethal heatwave across the region with recorded temperatures reaching a 122-year high [xiv]. These vast and far-reaching climatic implications also intersect with dire economic conditions. Housing some of the poorest and most economically disadvantaged groups globally, South Asia is also expected to grapple with diminishing living conditions across the region caused by extreme climate. Over 800 million South Asians are expected to witness significant reductions to their access to basic necessities with some areas more severely affected than others. Cox’s Bazaar, Bangladesh is projected to see a 20.2% reduction in living conditions by 2100 including a reduction in access to water, electricity, and other fundamental necessities [xv].

Climate refugees in South Asia: From internal to external Displacement

The intersection of these severe climate impacts and economic vulnerabilities contributes to a rising trend in displacement. Between 2012 and 2022, climate hazards have led to an average annual displacement level of 23 million individuals worldwide with the vast majority of internal displacement concentrated within Asia [xvi]. In 2019 alone, four of the top five countries facing the highest number of internal displacements caused by climate events were in Asia (See Figure 1). These Asian countries were India, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and China in descending order of displacement numbers [xvii]. Of these five countries, India and Bangladesh (from South Asia) accounted for a massive 9.1 million displaced persons.

Figure 1: Gross number of people displaced by natural disasters (dark blue) as a percentage of total population (light blue)

A more recent report also recorded a similar grim outcome. The International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Asia-Pacific Migration Data Report from 2022 ranked disaster-related internal displacement levels (See Figure 2). In 2022, similar outcomes were reported; three of the top five countries with the highest levels of internal displacement were in Asia-Pacific with Pakistan recording the highest levels of climate-related internal displacement [xvi]. In addition to Pakistan, both India and Bangladesh also recorded high levels of internal displacement; over 4 million people were displaced across the two countries in 2022 [xvi].

**Figure 2:** Countries in the Asia-Pacific with the largest number of disaster-related internal displacements in 2022 (in millions)
**Source**: Asia–Pacific Migration Data Report 2022

Not only are these numbers grim, but they also point to major social problems that arise following a large exodus of people after natural disasters. The 2022 Pakistani floods rendered 8.2 million Pakistanis homeless [xvi]. This disaster, affecting 33 million people across the country, was recorded as the costliest natural disaster in modern history [xviii]. In addition to this, six months post the event, over 1 million Pakistanis were at risk of starvation, 3.5 million children were at risk of becoming permanent school dropouts, 2.5 million didn’t have access to safe, drinking water, and malaria outbreaks were widespread across the country [xix].

What does the future look like?

One report by the Open Knowledge Society (OKS) estimates that South Asia is likely to witness an average of 35.7 million people, or 1.6% of its total population, experiencing climate-related, forced displacements by 2050 [xx]. Under this scenario, OKS has also predicted that climate migrants will increase to 23% of all Internally Displaced Persons by 2050 [xx]. Action Aid estimates a more dire number. In a 2020 study, Action Aid and Climate Action Network South Asia suggested that over 62 million people will be displaced by 2050 [xxi].

Regardless of the actual number of climate-induced forced migrations over the next 25 years, a disaster risk reduction action plan needs to be created on a national and regional level. Due to the unprecedented nature of climate disasters, countries need to prepare for large movements of people on very short notice. However, these plans also need to be created on an international level through the creation and implementation of an inclusive and effective climate displacement legal framework where cross-border migrants receive rights in the countries they seek refuge in. These migrants will also need to be integrated into their host societies especially if their country of origin is no longer habitable, or with a valid fear of the lack of safety around climate-related disasters in their country of origin. These models and legal frameworks are yet to be created, implemented, and distributed for countries to adopt. Without effective preparation and accommodation, the South Asian socio-economic and humanitarian landscape may face severe consequences

Pessimistic Scenarios

Pessimistic scenarios, as the name suggests, occur when negative outcomes occur leading to crises that are not handled effectively. In this case, when left unattended, what if the future South Asian socio-economic and humanitarian landscape has no changes made for climate-related migration both within national borders and across international borders?

Scenario one: Major cities in South Asia lose drinking water completely. A lack of water, a fundamental physiological need, will inevitably lead to sociopolitical unrest and forced displacement.

Drinking water is closely tied to climate change [xxii]. Currently, only 0.5% of the global water supply is accessible to us as safe, drinking water and this number is predicted to diminish significantly over the next few decades [xxii]. 2.5 billion people are expected to live in water-scarce regions by 2025 [xxiii]. The pattern of flooding followed by prolonged drought has permeated most of South Asia. As droughts increase in length, drinking water sources also dry up.

An example of this is the bustling city of Cape Town. As a global tourist destination, Cape Town contributes 9.9% of South Africa’s GDP [xxiii]. As a result of the shortages, major restrictions on water consumption were placed with an individual limit of 13 gallons per day [xxiii]; this approximates to a 90-second shower, one toilet flush, a couple of toothbrushing sessions, and a sink full of washing dishes [xxiii]. As a result, a ‘Day Zero’ was mentioned where no taps in the city would function and residents had to go to communal locations to collect water [xxiv].

In South Asia, a similar situation is unfolding. Major cities across the region are under imminent groundwater stress [xxv]; these include Islamabad, Kathmandu, Delhi, Dhaka, and Kabul where consumable water is declining at unprecedented levels [xxv]. Pakistan and India are especially at risk due to a combination of factors including poverty, declining food production, high population growth, and an increase in demand for water [xxvi].

Without drinking water, people will need to migrate out of the region in search of water. The disparity between those who can afford to move and those who cannot underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate adaptation strategies. The potential for mass displacement driven by water scarcity is a stark reminder of the pressing challenges South Asia faces in addressing the climate crisis and protecting vulnerable populations.

Scenario two: Large-scale political unrest caused by climate change.

Climate change is intricately linked to societal patterns of inequality [xvii]. With an increase in climate-related disasters combined with homelessness, poverty, economic downturns, and declining living conditions, countries in South Asia are fertile ground for socio-political unrest. Intense flooding followed by severe droughts more significantly affects those who are already disadvantaged including the elderly, the disabled, migrants, indigenous people, and other socially disadvantaged communities [xvii]. This oscillation between flooding and droughts can erode the soil and create large-scale famines that disproportionately affect already marginalized groups.

The 2021 drought in Iran is a great example of this. Large-scale protests unfolded across the country due to the mismanagement of water resources by the government and the lack of food sufficiency within the country [xxviii]. Protestors made references to dried-up lakes and salt flats and outlined a pattern of flooding followed by droughts [xxviii]. A similar fate is likely for South Asia if climate adaptations and forced displacements are not adequately addressed.

Integrative Scenarios

Here integrative scenarios are understood to occur when direct action is taken to mitigate the issue. In this case, integrative scenarios will try to focus on creating harmony between law, climate, statistics, and asylum as a means to achieve the best-case scenario.

Scenario one: Creation of a climate migration nexus within South Asia that protects the short-term and long-term rights of climate refugees both internally within national borders and externally over international borders.

A humanitarian-development nexus (HDN) is a concept that promotes collaboration between humanitarian organizations and international development actors on short-term and long-term humanitarian issues [xxix]. A climate migration nexus could integrate humanitarian principles from global refugee-focused organizations like IOM or UNHCR with grassroots efforts, working alongside governmental entities to develop the most effective strategies for mitigating climate-induced migration both within national borders and across South Asia.

This collaboration would allow the resources of organizations like IOM and other development actors to combine with the practical needs of both grassroots communities experiencing forced migration and governmental actors on legislation. An outcome of this climate-migration nexus could be increased advocacy for climate migrants, ratification of the refugee convention within South Asian countries, or even the identification of short-term and long-term solutions for climate-induced forced migration within national boundaries and across international borders. This is necessary for the region to see socioeconomic stability.

Scenario two: Climate adaptive policy solutions as a preventative measure.

With several competing civil society needs countries within South Asia have a lot to balance in terms of urgency and capital allocation. However, despite these constraints, climate adaptive policies are critical to prevent the worsening of climate-related events especially because of the vulnerability of climate-related risk within the region. The resilience of the people and country post a natural disaster will dictate the level of peace and democracy. These policies could include the introduction of green technologies, improvement in waste disposal methodologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mainstreaming organic decomposition, the introduction of a carbon tax or even creating a region-wide renewable energy grid [xxx][xxxi].

A signal of hope related to this is that the World Bank has launched and financed a 5-year South Asia Climate Roadmap initiative [xxxii]. As a part of this initiative, they aim to incentivize an increase in private sector investments, increase climate ambition within the region, and improve systemic resilience [xxxii]. This program can be a great leg up in financing climate projects and can incentivize innovation. If these changes are successful, the effects of displacement and natural disasters can be buffered. This buffering is essential to manage the uncertainty brought about by climate change.

These integrative scenarios point to essential and important action plans that need to be undertaken to maintain the peace and safety of migrants within South Asia and globally.

Conclusion

While South Asia is undeniably vulnerable to climate-related events, the adoption of integrative and climate-sensitive policies are crucial in safeguarding the region. Climate change is inextricably linked to displacement; the creation of domestic and international legal frameworks will ensure the safety and stability of those displaced due to sudden natural disasters or climate-related events. Despite the unpredictability that arises during any conversation about climate change, frameworks, at both a legal and policy level, will buffer and minimize the impacts on those displaced and on their subsequent host communities.

If these challenges are left unaddressed, the consequences can be devastating: a lack of access to education, reduced livelihoods, a reduction in living standards, or even a lack of food and water in more extreme scenarios is likely. To prevent the devastating consequences of unchecked climate-induced displacement, South Asian governments, international organizations, and civil society must act now. Policymakers need to urgently draft and implement legal frameworks that protect climate refugees, ensuring their safety and dignity both within and across borders. Urgent action is required to mitigate and buffer against the already worsening crisis.

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Additional Resources

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Climate refugees – the world’s forgotten victims. World Economic Forum. (n.d.). https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/climate-refugees-the-world-s-forgotten-victims/

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2020, 18 December. (2020, December 18). Climate migration in South Asia set to treble by 2050 due to political inaction on global warming. ActionAid International. https://actionaid.org/news/2020/climate-migration-south-asia-set-treble-2050-due-political-inaction-global-warming

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South Asia’s Escalating Climate Crisis: Confronting the Displacement Dilemma