What do we need to know about the COVID-19 crisis?

In the middle of April 2020, over 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported and the virus is continuing to spread around the world at an exponential rate. Most countries that are experiencing an outbreak have seen their health systems stressed beyond capacity by the rapid increase in needs and have imposed unprecedented policies to slow community transmission, some extending as far as a “lockdown” dramatically limiting freedom of movement. In some hotspots, established and well-funded health systems have been unable to manage the spike in caseloads, resulting in the need for surge capacity to be deployed. As COVID-19 continues to spread around the globe, it is clear that it could pose a significant challenge, particularly in areas with less well-developed health and social protection systems, in areas affected by active conflicts, and for displaced populations. In addition, women and girls, who make up the majority of healthcare workers and carers for families will be disproportionately affected since they are at high risk of infection and gender-based violence.

The global response to this emergency is likely to take up a significant amount of aid resources (reducing the funds available for other priorities) and requires humanitarian actors to quickly adapt to the different ways of working necessitated by social distancing. While responding to the urgent needs of affected populations, particularly the poorest and those that are most likely to be severely affected by COVID-19 (such as the elderly, people with pre-existing medical conditions and those without access to healthcare including refugees and migrants), humanitarian actors must consider the wider implications of the pandemic. The economic costs of containment are likely to be severe. The International Labour Organisation has suggested that the pandemic will affect 4 out of every 5 jobs and cause a global recession. Disruptions to agricultural processes and international trade will exacerbate global food insecurity in the short to medium term. Inequality will increase as those who are most privileged isolate themselves, secure better treatment and insulate themselves from the worst of the socio-economic consequences. These threats require planning and early action.

Though there is variability across the world, for the coming 18-24 months we believe that the humanitarian community will predominantly be operating in an environment where there is a lack of global governance and where there is an intensifying ecosystemic crisis in the form of a global pandemic plus the economic and social disruption it causes. This will result in an overwhelming level of humanitarian needs and insufficient resources.

The implications for the formal humanitarian sector in this context are as follows:

• Humanitarian actors will have increasing difficulty accessing vulnerable communities as the humanitarian space is under significant restrictions from national authorities.

• While formal humanitarian actors possess the capacity and expertise to engage in localized crises, limited experience in managing transnational/complex responses and in adopting equitable and effective remote partnering practices reduces their relevance when faced with a deepening ecosystemic crises, which requires both local early action and collaborative longer-term strategies.

• Even where formal humanitarian sector actors have the knowledge and expertise, they are overwhelmed by the scale of need as funding for humanitarian action does not keep pace, leading to situations of high and prolonged distress.

• INGOs are struggling to adapt quickly enough to maintain their relevance as the international system is in decline, being superseded by national and regional actors.

• Global development assistance is not seen as a priority by many states, and an increasing number of private donors are focusing on domestic issues. International funding is primarily funnelled through bilateral aid between governments.

This operating environment will be assumed to be true for all of the following scenarios, however, we also need to be aware of the potential for the pandemic response to drive change. The need for flexibility, for equitable partnering approaches that complement local capacities, the increased dependence on technology and the integration of new actors into the humanitarian space could catalyse a paradigm shift.

The global response to the pandemic is rapidly changing and there is a high degree of uncertainty. As a result, these preliminary scenarios are focused on exploring the factors we think are most influential in driving social/political and economic changes rather than reflecting the current situation in any particular region.

We have also made some key assumptions about COVID-19 based on the best available evidence:

1. Those with no underlying health conditions who have contracted the virus will develop medium-term immunity (expectation approximately 2 years).

2. It is expected that COVID-19 is affected by seasonality (and therefore will peak in the northern and southern hemispheres during the colder seasons) however as a new virus, the pandemic will follow more erratic patterns at the outset, likely behaving unpredictably until the end of 2021.

3. There will be a global economic turndown.

COVID-19 preliminary scenarios | April 10th update

These preliminary scenarios have been researched and developed by our partners at Futuribles. IARAN has adapted them to make them more global in focus. These will continue to be updated and amended as new information becomes available. It is expected that all three scenarios will be occurring simultaneously in different countries/regions of the world:

Next steps: A-B-C-D investments for effectiveness in every scenario

The highly changeable environment which has been created by the COVID-19 pandemic and the response to it means that we need to consider all of the different scenarios to best manage such uncertainty. Considering only one potential evolution of this crisis will limit the effectiveness of humanitarian stakeholders across the spectrum of different operating environments in which they are working.

Though the challenges presented by this crisis should not be underestimated, for the humanitarian community it also presents an opportunity to put into action some of the transformative commitments that were made at the World Humanitarian Summit. The response to this crisis provides a space to try new approaches to increase effectiveness.

The next steps outlined below are designed to be integrated into response plans and contribute towards ensuring that the humanitarian community is seizing every opportunity for transformation.