The Ferghana Valley

A 5-YEAR HUMANITARIAN TRENDS ASSESSMENT

This analysis assesses possible trends in the next five-year period that could lead to humanitarian intervention. Within the Central Asia region, the Ferghana Valley has been identified as particularly vulnerable, impacted as it is by environmental hazards, water stress, ethnic conflict, increased poverty and urbanization as well as national and regional power plays. Shifts in the Central Asian political sphere and reduced GDP will weaken national disaster risk reduction policies and coordination. Combined with a trend of decreasing humanitarian aid, this region could prove more vulnerable than in recent decades to shocks.