Political instability will be defined in broad terms, encompassing the likelihood of sustained civil disobedience or protests resulting in a weakening of a government’s legitimacy, the potential loss of trust in governance structures or processes, and the propensity for irregular regime change (e.g. assassinations or coups).

Key Insights

• By 2030, the countries currently facing political crises will mostly be the same as in the 2010-2015 period

• By 2030, the impact of demographic growth and climate change will compound political instability resulting in a concentration of fragility in areas where multiple vulnerabilities intersect.

• By 2030, western countries could face significant political tensions resulting in humanitarian crises