NIGER 2021 scenario analysis

Niger is today at the heart of western political news and attention. Its geography within a very unstable regional environment, added to its strong political position in the fight against terrorism have pushed this country under the spots, however Niger is poorly classified in terms of economic dynamism and human development index. Many studies have explored the structural determinants of Niger, a true laboratory for humanitarian practices and development approaches for decades. Yet Niger today it questions and it worries. The country, renowned for its pacifist culture, has experienced a series of major events in recent months that could have a lasting impact on its situation: the deterioration of its regional environment, the country's positioning in the fight against terrorism, the security and humanitarian crisis linked to Boko Haram and the holding of a singular electoral process to say the least.

However, the existing analisis on the political, social and security stability of Niger are extremely divided, between unchanging heavy tendencies which would make Niger a relatively inert country and recent (or recently considered) triggers which could change the situation and transform the country in the long term. For example, many conjectures made at the beginning of the Boko Haram crisis on the implosion of Niger or at least its destabilization of identity and security have so far failed. This analysis aims to identify the structural determinants of the country, the heavy trends in the background, and the current sources of fragility or major uncertainty which could shape the face of Niger in the years to come, and pave the way to the proposed scenarios.