Used to waking up every day under a blue sky, with crystal-clear springs, forests full of life, and the cheerful sound of birds, Pedro rises one morning in his native indigenous community to witness how the trees are turned into cargo trucks, animals flee in fear before a total human invasion, the cenotes are drilled, and the sky turns gray.

"I don’t know if I have hope anymore; my hope is shattered, broken, and sealed within each of the cenotes [underground water-filled caves] that have been paved over to allow the train to pass." "It's unfortunate, but I don't see a promising future."

This situation reflects the experience of many people in Mexico during the recently inaugurated Maya Train project, which has been labeled as an ecocide by numerous environmentalists, activists, and indigenous groups.

Ecocide refers to massive damage and destruction of ecosystems in the short or long term (BBVA, 2024). The urgency to protect the environment has generated a significant impact on society, such that the term ecocide is starting to be recognized as an international crime with serious environmental consequences, reflecting global concern (Zaira Ramírez & Tammara Ramírez, 2020; Fernández, 2017). Although not yet classified as an international crime, there is growing pressure for organizations like the International Criminal Court to include it in their statutes, facilitating local appeals to international justice (Moribe, Bastos, and França, 2023). If achieved, this would be a crucial step in giving a voice to local victims of environmental catastrophes carried out under the banner of progress and modernization.

Ecocide in the Mexican context:

The regulation of ecocide in Mexico is still under development. While proposals have been made to classify it as a federal crime, this has only materialized in a few states. For instance, Chiapas included ecocide in its penal code in 2020, with penalties ranging from 5 to 20 years; Jalisco followed in 2022 (Fundación Solón, 2021; StopEcocidio, 2022). In October 2023, the Mexico City Congress also strengthened its regulations against ecocide, highlighting the importance of environmental protection (Zaira Ramírez & Tammara Ramírez, 2020; Hogan Lovells, 2020).

However, some experts argue that these regulations might exclude acts committed by the government and transnational corporations, actors often accused by communities of crimes against the environment (Zaira Ramírez & Tammara Ramírez, 2020).

Case: The Maya Train

One of the most controversial projects of the Mexican government in recent years is the Maya Train, a megaproject aimed at improving mobility in southeastern Mexico through tourist trains and upgraded rail lines. According to estimates, the megaproject has tripled material extraction and quadrupled regional economic growth but has also caused severe impacts in the region that could exacerbate water stress (Lenin Jiménez, 2021, pp. 2-4; Eduardo Romero, María Torregrosa, et al., 2023, pp. 227-230).

From the outset, this megaproject presented irregularities and controversies, as the territories where it was built violated federal provisions on environmental impact and human rights. The diverse environments, resulting from the interaction between geomorphology, hydrology, and climate, have made southeastern Mexico one of the most ecologically and culturally diverse regions of Mexico, socio-environmental assets that have been jeopardized by the megaproject, according to activists and local indigenous communities.

In the territory where the Maya Train is being constructed, there were 25.4 million hectares of jungle, of which only 4 million hectares remain today—a reduction attributed to the Maya Train megaproject (FORBES, 2023). The lack of planning and understanding of the territory led to ecosystem damage, including the compromising of natural caves by introducing 17,000 pilings of 1.2 meters in diameter at 25 meters deep to support the train's construction, which involved drilling into the region's aquifers (FORBES, 2023).

Environmentalists argue that one of the main problems with the project was its premature conclusion, as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador sought to inaugurate the project between December 2023 and February 2024, leading to the omission of preventive procedures. The project impacted the lives of multiple essential species, along with the felling of more than 10 million trees, reducing the ecosystem by more than half (FORBES, 2023), with consequences for the region's socio-environmental future.

The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) pointed out that 50% of the surface area of the states through which the Maya Train will pass is composed of more than 1,500 agrarian cores, and a project of this scale can accelerate environmental deterioration and increase social conflict.

On the Maya Train route, there are:

• 15 Federal Protected Natural Areas.

• 20 State Protected Natural Areas.

• 49 Archaeological Zones under the protection of the National Institute of Anthropology and History.

• 1 Municipal Ecological Reserve that supplies 50% of Mérida's water.

• 24 Areas voluntarily designated for conservation.

Among the protected areas is the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, with the greatest diversity in the Yucatán Peninsula, the largest forest mass in Mexico, and the largest jaguar population. Given these characteristics, it is evident that the megaproject will affect the environmental services of these ecosystems (Eduardo Romero, María Torregrosa, et al., 2023, pp. 231-232).

This megaproject has also generated socio-political tensions by negatively impacting the livelihoods and natural resources of indigenous communities, potentially leading to conflicts between locals, the government, the private sector, and environmental organizations. The region, valuable for its biodiversity and indigenous biocultural reserve, should be preserved, not destroyed (Eduardo Romero, María Torregrosa, et al., 2023, pp. 231-232, 253-254).

Trends and Possible Scenarios

Community participation is essential for the success of coastal restoration projects, as local perceptions and knowledge are key in governance and decision-making (Méndez and Martínez, et al., 2018, p. 51). The case of projects with a high socio-environmental footprint, such as the Maya Train, raises a deeper question about Mexico's environmental future: What could happen in the coming years in the face of climate crisis trends and irresponsible human activities?

According to estimates, by 2100, the world's population could grow to 11 billion people (ECOZAP, 2023). Overpopulation requires increased production of food, water, and energy to meet humanity's basic needs, but available natural resources are becoming increasingly scarce (Méndez Toribio et al., n.d.).

Mexico is one of the five countries with the greatest biological diversity, with 864 species of reptiles and 564 of mammals, many of them endemic. Additionally, Mexico ranks fourth in vascular plant richness and third in angiosperms, with 23,314 plant species, of which 11,600 are endemic (Méndez Toribio et al., n.d.).

These characteristics, however, are at risk due to recent trends:

1. Loss of Biodiversity

The United Nations Environment Program determined that Mexico is one of the 12 megadiverse countries hosting 70% of the world's species, ranking fourth in biological diversity and third in ecosystem biodiversity, as well as having its own sea (the Sea of Cortez) (Badii et al., 2015, pp. 156-159).

The variety of climates contributes to the existence of different ecosystems and a heterogeneity of habitats, which have been affected by activities such as the introduction of invasive species. However, according to the FAO (2020), Mexico has annually lost around 0.7% of its primary forests from 1990 to 2015, equivalent to 25.7% in 25 years (Méndez Toribio et al., n.d.).

It is estimated that climate change will severely impact Mexico, with more than 50% of the 376 endemic amphibian species at risk of mass extinction and a possible reduction of 67% in the cloud forest by 2030 (Méndez Toribio et al., n.d.).

2. Increasing Deforestation

Deforestation is the transformation of natural cover for forestry, agricultural, or livestock purposes (Edgar Gregorio, 2016, p. 3; Badii et al., 2015, p. 165). In 2013, it was estimated that 50% of the world's forests had disappeared and that 76 countries had completely lost their native forests; moreover, SEMARNAT ranked Mexico fourth in forest diversity (Cristóbal Magaña, 2013, pp. 112-114).

From 1970 to the early 1990s, Mexico lost 29,765 km² of forests and jungles. Between 1993 and 2000, deforestation increased to 54,306 km², with annual rates rising from 175,000 ha to 319,000 ha. By 2002, only 17.5% of the 18 million hectares of tropical forests remained. Deforestation rates have varied between 370,000 ha and 1.5 million ha annually. Recent estimates suggest an annual loss of approximately 155,000 ha (Cristóbal Magaña, 2013).

In 2010, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ranked Mexico seventh in deforestation, considering INEGI's cartographic inputs, as well as CONAFOR's monitoring. Recent trends indicate that deforestation rate estimates in the country are limited due to illegal logging (CONAFOR, 2018, pp. 1-6; CONAFOR, 2018, pp. 4-12; Edgar Gregorio, 2016, pp. 3-4).

It is also estimated that in Mexico, between 2001 and 2018, an average of 212,070 hectares was lost annually, with the maximum value reached in 2016 (CONAFOR, 2018, pp. 4-12; Edgar Gregorio, 2016, pp. 3-4).

La principal causa de esta deforestación es la expansión agrícola y urbana, que afecta la biodiversidad en sus niveles genético, específico y ecosistémico, y amenaza los hábitats y la provisión de alimentos para las especies. México alberga 46 de las 100 especies invasoras más perjudiciales del mundo, que alteran las interacciones entre especies y el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas (Méndez Toribio et al., s.f.). 

Scenarios for 2040: Between Environmental Catastrophe and Voices of Hope

The main cause of this deforestation is the expansion of agricultural and urban areas, which affects biodiversity at genetic, species, and ecosystem levels, and threatens habitats and food provision for species. Mexico is home to 46 of the 100 most harmful invasive species in the world, which alter species interactions and ecosystem functioning (Méndez Toribio et al., n.d.).

Scenario 1: Growth Future

In a scenario where industrial progress follows a path of unchecked growth, Mexico continues its economic and technological development, with large-scale projects such as the Maya Train and the expansion of a much more ambitious railway network at the federal level. Ecosystems are sacrificed in the name of development, being replaced by urban and agricultural areas. The increase in production and commercialization raises pollution levels, while the enforcement of ecocide legislation remains weak (Universidad de Valencia, 2016). Endemic species in the country disappear, falling victim to the destruction of their natural habitats and deforestation.

Scenario 2: Collapse Future

In a future of collapse, without measures to protect biodiversity in Mexico, massive deforestation and species extinction cause an environmental and social shock, leading to irreversible damage. The degradation of ecosystems reduces the availability of essential resources such as clean water, pure air, and food, severely affecting the health and quality of life of rural communities, which will face displacement and poverty due to the destruction of their environment. Mexico experiences an immense loss of biodiversity and natural resources, essential for economic sectors such as tourism and agriculture.

Scenario 3: Constriction Future

In an alternative scenario, the future envisions a society under a more centralized and disciplined government, dedicated to imposing strict regulations and policies to combat environmental threats that could impact the country's economic stability. Recognizing that this benefits the nation, laws against ecocide are strengthened, and appropriate and effective mechanisms for implementing these regulations are established. Furthermore, local participation and international cooperation in biodiversity protection, as well as in waste management and ecological restoration, are intensified (Universidad de Valencia, 2016). However, natural conservation comes with a great sacrifice, translated into the severe enforcement of the law on those who directly or indirectly affect the ecosystem, causing tensions among certain social and economic sectors dependent on natural exploitation.

Scenario 4: Transformative Future

Recognizing the weakness of environmental regulations and the impunity for those who commit ecocides in the country, one can also imagine a transformative future where Mexican society prioritizes nature conservation. Through active social participation and a reinterpretation of the concept of economic growth, environmental policy is reconfigured as a principle of great utility and social regeneration. In this scenario, awareness and preparedness to face the environmental crisis are strengthened, leading to the effective implementation of policies and laws for natural conservation and biodiversity protection in all states of the republic. Sustainable practices in agriculture and fishing become the norm, and Mexico makes a firm commitment to protecting and preserving its biodiversity (Toledo, 2015).

Scenario 5: Integrative Future

In a pragmatic scenario, Mexico recognizes the importance of economic growth that does not compromise the conservation of its natural wealth. Laws and regulations promoting the adoption of sustainable practices are implemented, fostering a balanced coexistence between development and sustainability. In this scenario, the expansion of protected areas is prioritized to ensure the preservation of the country's ecosystems and biodiversity. Additionally, sustainable measures and practices are adopted in key sectors such as agriculture and tourism, which not only boost economic growth but also ensure environmental protection for future generations. This comprehensive approach allows Mexico to move towards more balanced and conscious development, where economic progress and environmental conservation become essential pillars for society's well-being (OBELA, n.d.).

Conclusion

The environmental devastation in Mexico, reflected in the loss of forests, jungles, and biodiversity, underscores the urgency of recognizing and acting on ecocide as an international crime while carefully evaluating the need to invest in infrastructure and mobility megaprojects that promise long-term benefits. The high rate of deforestation caused by projects like the Maya Train not only exemplifies the destruction of ecosystems but also profoundly affects the culture of indigenous communities. A robust legal framework is needed to hold perpetrators accountable and protect essential natural resources for life.

Classifying ecocide as a crime can significantly contribute to halting environmental damage by establishing consequences and demanding restoration measures. Legal environmental protection and community participation are essential to achieving a sustainable future, reinforcing the government's and society's commitment to preserving and rescuing the biodiversity of the country and the world.

References

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