Future Livelihoods in Karamoja

A SCENARIO ANALYSIS LOOKING FORWARD TO 2022

This report utilizes strategic foresight techniques to build three scenarios for the future of livelihoods in Karamoja.

A number of key drivers are identified that impacted the quality and quantity of livelihood growth in Karamoja. These drivers were ranked on a matrix charting their potential impact versus the amount of uncertainty they may face over the next five years. Hypotheses were constructed for each key driver and are used to build narrative scenarios. The objective for this report is to inform strategic responses to each scenario in an attempt to identify one response that can flexibly adapt to an indeterminate future.