The Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation Guide is the final output in the Future of Aid 2040 series — the moment when foresight becomes a decision. Built around the metaphor of an organisation as a tree, it walks teams through four sequential stages: assessing leadership readiness, mapping their competence tree, stress-testing it against the four 2040 scenarios, and backcasting a concrete pathway to transformation. Drawing on Causal Layered Analysis, backcasting methods, and the lived experience of nearly 900 practitioners worldwide, the Guide is a practical, facilitated companion for organisations brave enough to look at themselves clearly and commit to two or three priority shifts over the next three to five years.
The third paper in the Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation series. It moves beyond diagnosis to propose the organisational archetypes — local, intermediary and enabling — that can carry the aid sector into 2040, and the conditions required to build them. Five archetypes, one shared value chain, and a set of near- and long-term recommendations for actors serious about transformation rather than rhetoric.
A bold foresight exploration of how climate, technology, demographics and geopolitics are rewriting the world of aid. Drawing on nearly 900 practitioners worldwide, the Future of Aid 2040 – Scenarios Report charts four plausible futures for the humanitarian system — and equips organisations to act with courage, not certainty.
Beneath the visible crises reshaping the aid sector lie deeper layers of meaning, metaphor and myth. Applying Sohail Inayatullah's Causal Layered Analysis to humanitarian futures, this report surfaces the unspoken assumptions of the giver–receiver paradigm — and shows why real transformation requires shifting from charity to solidarity, from intervention to partnership.
The ongoing Ukraine war could disrupt global supply chains and create energy insecurity, impacting countries like Italy. The conflict has caused an influx of migrants into Europe and disrupted global supply chains, leading to a rise in commodity prices and an energy crisis. Italy is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on energy imports from Russia, record inflation, and dependence on wheat imports. By examining potential scenarios, this analysis helps humanitarian actors respond to the needs of affected populations in Italy and the surrounding region.
Drawing on extensive research, the book demonstrates in practical terms how embedding futures-focused thinking into practice can help humanitarian actors to enhance their impact and fit for the future. The book provides readers with a step-by-step guide to an innovative combination of tools and methods tested and refined over the course of several years. However, it also goes beyond this, by grounding the approach within the broader ambition of making humanitarian action more effective. Overall, the analytical and strategic processes outlined in this book will accompany a decision maker through every stage of creating a robust, agile and impactful long-term strategy.
Though there is variability across the world, for the coming 18-24 months we believe that the humanitarian community will predominantly be operating in an environment where there is a lack of global governance and where there is an intensifying ecosystemic crisis in the form of a global pandemic plus the economic and social disruption it causes. This will result in an overwhelming level of humanitarian needs and insufficient resources: these three preliminary scenarios will be occurring simultaneously in different countries/regions of the world.
In the Future of Financial Assistance report we take a look at the scale up of cash assistance is catalysing rapid change in the humanitarian sector – the emergence of new operational models, changing use of technology and partnerships with private sector actors, and stronger links between humanitarian assistance and other types of financial flows.
In ‘From Voices to Choices’ we explore the dynamics of decision-making in humanitarian aid, looking at the trends and inertia that could move us (or prevent us from moving) to a system where people affected by crises are making the decisions about the aid that they receive
A SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON THE DRIVERS OF EXCLUSION OF LGBTI INDIVIDUALS
This report analyses the extent of the hidden humanitarian crisis facing Lesbian, Gay, Bi-sexual and Transgender (LGBTI) individuals around the world. Using strategic foresight, we have identified the major drivers of LGBTI social exclusion and considered their evolution to 2030, aligning to the time-line of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ground the conversation in the "leave no one behind" agenda.